Wannan labarin wani bangare ne na ISC's Canji21 jerin, wanda zai bincika yanayin ilimi da aiki, shekaru biyar daga yarjejeniyar Paris da kuma a cikin shekara mai mahimmanci don aiwatar da ci gaba mai dorewa.
A karshe Rahoton Kudi na na shida (Ar6) wanda Panelungiyar Kula da Harkokin Waje take bayarwa daga canjin yanayi (IPCC) ta karfafa kisiyayyen gas-sifidi ta hanyar 1 na iya karfi da ƙarfi, ma'ana cewa kawai zamu iya cimma burin zafin na dogon lokaci da aka gano a cikin yarjejeniyar Paris don iyakance dumamar yanayi zuwa 2050 ° C ta hanyar rage yawan iskar gas nan take, da sauri da kuma girma.. Babban binciken ya yi daidai da rahoton kimantawa na biyar (AR1.5), amma nuna gaggawar samun tsaka tsaki na carbon yayin da kuma daidaitawa ga yawancin tasirin da ba za a iya kaucewa ba na sauyin yanayi. Rage lahani da haɗari na sauyin yanayi ya dogara da yanayin aiki, samun dama da iko, sabis na ruwa da yanayin samar da bayanai kan yadda yanayin muhalli da hatsarori masu alaƙa zasu iya shafar ayyukan zamantakewa da tattalin arziki da muhalli.
Akwai nau'o'in haɗarin yanayi guda uku na yau da kullun tare da yuwuwar sakamakon kuɗin da aka zayyana Task Force Board's Stability Board's Financial Stask Force on Climate-Related Financial Discloses (TCFD): haɗarin jiki, haɗarin tsaka-tsaki da haɗarin abin alhaki.. TFCD tana ba da shawarar yin la'akari da girgizar tattalin arziki ko asarar kuɗi ta hanyar guguwa, fari, gobarar daji da sauran abubuwan da suka faru, ko ta canjin yanayin yanayi. Duk da haka, wannan la'akari ba sau da yawa ana amfani da shi a cikin ƙididdigar haɗarin yanayi na ƙungiyoyi, sai a cikin masana'antar inshora. Halin ƙayyadaddun ƙayyadaddun haɗarin jiki da ke da alaƙa da yanayi yana da mahimmanci. Gano haɗarin yanayi akai-akai kuma daidai yana da mahimmanci don sanar da bayyanawa.
Yayin da aka sami ci gaba mai mahimmanci, yin hasashen gajeriyar yanayi (shekara-mako-watanni-shekara) abubuwan da suka inganta yanayin yanayi har yanzu rata ce a cikin haɗarin al'ada na al'ada da kimanta haɗarin yanayi. Bukatar ingantattun yanayi da bayanan canjin yanayi don sanar da kimanta haɗarin haɗari da yawa da kuma yanke shawara na tushen shaida bai taɓa yin ƙarfi ba. Haɗin kai mara kyau na yanayi da bayanan yanayi don kimanta haɗarin yana da mahimmanci yayin da yanayin yanayi da motsin teku da matsananciyar yanayin da za su iya haifarwa suna haɗuwa da juna. [1]. Yunƙurin ƙaruwar faruwar al'amura da tsananin matsanancin yanayi sakamakon sauyin yanayi da ƙaruwar yawan jama'a a yankunan da ke da rauni ne kawai ke ƙarfafa wannan bukata.
Hasashen tasirin canjin yanayi na ɗan gajeren lokaci, matsakaita da na dogon lokaci da dangantakarsu da matsanancin yanayi zai ba da fa'ida mai fa'ida, bayanai masu amfani waɗanda za a iya haɗa su cikin tsarawa da gudanarwa na haɗari.
A kowace shekara, hadurran da ke da nasaba da yanayi kamar guguwa, ambaliya, zafi, fari, da guguwa suna haifar da barna na biliyoyin daloli kuma suna shafar miliyoyin mutane a cikin ƙasashe masu tasowa da masu tasowa. Matsanancin yanayi na yau da kullun yana da babban tasiri ga al'umma kuma yana shafar kowa a ko'ina. An tabbatar da fa'idodin hasashen yanayin yanayin ruwa mara kyau a sassa da yawa na duniya (misali, a Kiribati, Ghana, Philippines) kuma a halin yanzu ana kan bincike (Wetterhall et al., 2018; Fakhruddin et al., 2021) (Hoto na 1). Ƙimar yanayin yanayi da sabis na sauyin yanayi sau da yawa suna amfani da tsarin agro-economic don kwaikwayi yuwuwar fa'idodi (Barrett et al., 2021). An yi nasarar aiwatar da haɗe-haɗe na yanayin yanayi da bayanan yanayi-ingantattun matsakaici-tsayi da hasashen yanayi mai tsayi a cikin ayyukan noma da ayyukan jin kai (misali, a Bangladesh, Indonesia, Amurka, EU). A Bangladesh, jarin dalar Amurka 1 a cikin kwanaki 1-10 hasashen ambaliyar ruwa ya kawo fa'idodin darajar dalar Amurka 40 ga al'umma (Fakhruddin et al., 2015). Yanayi da samfuran yanayi sune ginshiƙan kula da haɗarin yanayi da daidaitawa ga sauye-sauyen yanayi yayin da suke haɓaka juriya don ci gaba mai dorewa.
Sabis na yanayi da sauyin yanayi na taimaka wa al'ummomi don faɗakar da tsarin yanayi don amfanin al'umma, wanda ke taimakawa inganta lafiyar jama'a da amincin mutane, fadada damar tattalin arziki, kare albarkatun muhalli, da inganta tsaron ƙasa. Sabis na yanayi da yanayi sun haɗa da hasashen yanayi da faɗakarwa; Hasashen ambaliyar ruwa da fari da sa ido; shirye-shiryen haɗari na halitta da amsa; Kula da lafiyar jama'a; rigakafin cututtuka da sarrafawa; kima da kula da hadarin wuta; da kuma yanke shawarar tallafin albarkatun ruwa, noma, sufuri, da sauran sassan tattalin arziki. Abubuwan lura, kimiyya, da ayyuka masu alaƙa da yanayi da yanayi suna tallafawa ƙoƙarin biyan buƙatun ɗan adam (don abinci, matsuguni, makamashi, lafiya da aminci) da kuma taimakawa ƙirƙirar dama don ci gaban zamantakewa da tattalin arziki..
Duniya tana motsawa zuwa juyin juya halin masana'antu na biyar, sabon zamanin Renaissance (WEF, 2019). Sabbin fasaha suna fitowa don tabbatar da ƙirƙira da manufa gama gari don amfani da su don buɗe damar shiga da ka'idojin FAIR (watau mai samuwa, mai sauƙi, mai mu'amala da sake amfani da su). Al'ummomin bincike da masu yin aiki sun daɗe suna jiran haɗin kai, buɗe buɗe ido, m, fahimta, sassauƙa, haɗin kai, abin dogaro, goyan bayan ƙwararru, amintaccen, buɗe-bude-bude, dandamali na gani mai sauri da abokantaka mai amfani don kimanta haɗari. An dauki matakai da dama. Koyaya, har yanzu akwai rashin ingantaccen tsari da ayyuka masu ɗorewa da kayan aikin ƙididdige ƙididdige ƙididdiga na duniya masu ƙima da haɓaka ayyukan yanayi na ƙasa da sabis na ruwa (NHMSs).
Dandalin haɗin gwiwa don fahimtar canjin yanayi da tasirin yanayi yana da mahimmanci ga hankalin yanayi. Irin wannan dandali zai iya zana daga nau'ikan ƙididdiga masu amfani da bayanai da yawa na lokuta daban-daban (awa'o'i, kwanaki, makonni, watanni, shekaru, shekaru da yawa da ƙarni). Waɗannan ƙirar ƙididdiga sun dogara ne akan yanayi na gida, yanki da na duniya da bayanan samfurin hasashen yanayi, waɗanda ke da alaƙa da fallasa da rauni. Haɗin kai mara kyau na yanayin yanayi da samfuran yanayi (gajere-tsalle, matsakaici-tsayi da tsinkaya mai tsayi) na iya mafi kyawun goyan bayan tsarin yanke shawara ga masu amfani ta hanyar taimaka musu su fahimci gajeru, matsakaici da tsayin daka da haɗari da rashin tabbas. Wannan dandali na iya yin niyya game da hasashen haɗari da ke da alaƙa da yanayi da kuma nazarin tushen yanayi don faɗuwar direbobin yanayi. Za a iya haɓaka shi tare da la'akari da haɗin kai na gaba mai girma na haɗari da ƙima na kuɗi da kadarori, don manufar bayar da rahoton bayanan kuɗi masu alaka da yanayi. Hoto 2 yana nuna tsarin ra'ayi don haɗin kai mara kyau na yanayi da bayanan yanayi don samar da bayanan haɗari na gaba don yanke shawara na abokin ciniki.
Kamar yadda kimanta haɗarin yanayi ya ƙunshi rashin tabbas na zahiri, yin bitar bayanai akan ma'auni daban-daban yana ba da gyara ga yanke shawara. Ana iya kiran tsarin "tsarin tsarin", inda ra'ayoyin masu amfani na ƙarshe ke da mahimmanci, kamar yadda hanyoyin da za a haɗa ra'ayi a cikin tsarin don ci gaba da inganta bayanan da ake bukata don takamaiman masu amfani.
Hukumar Kula da Yanayi ta Duniya (WMO) ta amince da hadaddiyar manufar bayanai don bunkasa darajar zamantakewa da tattalin arziki na yanayi, yanayi da sabis na ruwa. Sauran ayyukan WMO kamar Global Basic Observation Network (GBON) da kuma Wuraren Tallafin Kuɗi na Tsare-tsare (SOFF) zai haɓaka tsarin sa ido na yanayi na duniya na ainihi, wanda ke da mahimmanci don rage haɗarin bala'i da sabis da ke da alaƙa da amincin jama'a, aikin gona, jiragen sama, sufurin ruwa da ƙasa, ababen more rayuwa da kasuwanci.
Ƙoƙarin ƙarfafa jurewar yanayi ya dogara ne akan samuwar yanayi, ruwa da bayanan yanayi da bayanai ga masu tsara manufofi da sauran jihohi- da masu zaman kansu. Sabis na yanayi da sauyin yanayi, waɗanda aka keɓe tare a matsayin sabis na yanayi, suna ba da bayanai da shawarwari game da abubuwan da suka gabata, na yanzu da kuma nan gaba na yanayin yanayi a lokuta daban-daban. Waɗannan sun bambanta daga mintuna da makonni (yanayi) zuwa watanni, shekaru, shekaru da yawa har ma da ƙarni (yanayin yanayi). Cikakkun ayyukan yanayi sune i) sabis na ruwa da ke mai da hankali kan ruwa da ruwa na cikin ƙasa da kuma rufe wuraren kamar makamashi da sarrafa albarkatun ruwa; da ii) ayyukan binciken teku da na ruwa waɗanda ke magance tekuna da sassan da ke da alaƙa. Misalan shirye-shiryen yanki da na duniya sune:
Muhimmancin daidai da lokacin yanayi da bayanan yanayi don yanke shawara yana ƙaruwa. Tasirin sauyin yanayi daban-daban ba sa faruwa a ware kuma sauyin yanayi yana rinjayar matsanancin yanayi. Dukansu canjin yanayi da matsanancin yanayin yanayi suna buƙatar la'akari da ƙimar haɗari. 'Shekaru goma na canji na dijital' yana ba da dama don haɓaka yanayin duniya na gaba da tsarin hasashen yanayi a cikin tsarin ƙirar ƙira ɗaya ɗaya a cikin kewayon lokuta (wanda aka watsa zuwa shekara ɗari) da ma'auni na musamman (ma'auni mai ma'ana zuwa tsarin tsarin yanayin duniya) don tallafawa al'ummomi. tattara ra'ayoyi, ilimi da ƙwarewa.
Haɗe-haɗen yanayi da dandamalin yanayi na iya samar da hatsarori masu alaƙa da yanayi maras kyau da yanayin haɗari bisa ma'auni daban-daban na ɗan lokaci da rashin tabbas game da alaƙarsu a cikin bayanin. Wannan hankali na canjin yanayi haɗe da kimanta hatsarori zai sanar da yanke shawara kan yanayin yanayi don sauyin yanayi daban-daban da kuma matsanancin haɗarin yanayi. Ingantacciyar fahimtar haɗarin jiki da ke da alaƙa da sauyin yanayi zai iya ba da ƙarin cikakkun bayanai don kimanta haɗarin canjin yanayi da kuma tallafawa kimanta tasirin mahimman abubuwan da aka ba da shawarar bayyana kudi masu alaƙa da yanayi (mulki, dabarun, sarrafa haɗari, da ma'auni da maƙasudi). Sakamakon canjin yanayi na al'umma a cikin shekaru da yawa ko karni na gaba yana da wuya a iya hango shi saboda dalilai na zamantakewa daban-daban da rashin tabbas. Duban haɗari daga yanayi da yanayi a cikin ruwan tabarau guda ɗaya zai iya ba da yanayi don fahimtar mafi kyawun fahimta da ƙirƙirar rikodin dogon lokaci don kimanta bambancin yanayi da canji, da kuma samar da tushe mai mahimmanci don ci gaba, gwaji, da kuma tabbatar da samfurori da aka yi amfani da su don tsinkaya. da tsinkaya.
Haɗaɗɗen yanayi da dandamali na yanayi shine mataki na farko zuwa dandamali na haɗin gwiwa don kimanta tasirin kuɗi da ta jiki wanda zai iya ba da ingantaccen rahoto mai inganci, tushen yanayin ga ƙasashe. Wannan na iya faɗaɗa damammaki na kasuwanci da kuma taimakawa al'umma su guji ko rage bala'o'i masu alaƙa da yanayi. Wannan na iya zama wani tsari ga wasu ƙasashe da masu yin wasan kwaikwayo don ƙarin fayyace bayanan kuɗi masu alaƙa da yanayin yanayi, wanda zai iya haɓaka fahimtar duniya game da haɗarin da ke da alaƙa da yanayi. Kamar yadda sauyin yanayi ƙalubale ne na duniya wanda ba ya tsayawa kan iyakoki, ƙoƙarin da ake yi tsakanin ƙasashen duniya da na ƙasashen waje don gina ilimi da canja wuri na da mahimmanci.
Fiye da kasashe 40 masu tasowa a cikin gudummawar da aka ƙaddara ta ƙasa (NDCs) sun yarda da buƙatar yanayi da bayanan yanayi don jagorantar yanke shawararsu game da juriyar yanayi. IPCC AR6 sun ba mu gargaɗi mai kyau game da abin da ke zuwa. Yanzu ya rage namu da gaba gaɗi mu fara tunanin sake tunani da sake tsara makomarmu. Muna da damar sau ɗaya-in-a-rayuwa don sake tunani da gina duniyar shirye-shiryen yanayi da juriya. Yin almubazzaranci da wannan na iya haifar da sakamakon da ba za a yi tsammani ba.
Yarda: Marubuta sun yarda da goyan bayan edita da sharhi da aka samu daga Richard Reinen-Hamill, Tonkin + Taylor, New Zealand.
Hotuna via Tonkin & Taylor.
Bapon Fakhruddin
Dokta Bapon Fakhruddin kwararre ne na sauyin yanayi na kasa da kasa da kuma kwararre kan rage hadarin bala'i tare da fiye da shekaru 20 na gogewa da aiki tare da kasashe masu rauni a duniya, kuma mafi kwanan nan a Kudancin Pacific da New Zealand. Dr Fakhruddin yana rike da digirin digirgir a fannin Injiniya da Gudanar da Ruwa, Dr Fakhruddin yana daya daga cikin kwararu a duniya kan juriyar yanayi da jin kai a matakin al'umma, gwamnati da hukumomin da ke mai da hankali kan inganta juriya da dorewar al'umma nan gaba.
Jana Sillmann
Jana Sillmann farfesa ce a Jami'ar Hamburg (Jamus) kuma babban mai bincike a Cibiyar Nazarin Yanayi ta Duniya (CICERO), Norway. Sillmann kwararre ne a fannin ilimin halittu kwararre a cikin nazarin yanayin yanayi. Ayyukanta suna da alaƙa da abubuwa daban-daban waɗanda zasu iya haifar da canje-canje a cikin matsanancin yanayi, kamar canjin yanayi da ayyukan ɗan adam (misali, iskar gas da gurɓataccen iska). A cikin bincikenta na yanzu, Sillmann yana amfani da hanyoyin tsaka-tsaki don ingantaccen haɗin kai na kimiyyar halitta da zamantakewa, kuma tana da sha'awa ta musamman game da tasirin zamantakewa da tattalin arziƙi na matsanancin yanayi a sassan sassa da tambayoyi masu alaƙa da kimanta haɗarin haɗari da yanke shawara a ƙarƙashin rashin tabbas.
Christa Clapp, Jana Sillmann, (2019). Gudanar da Zuba Jari-Smart, Duniya Daya, Vol. 1, Fitowa ta 1, 2019, Shafuffuka na 57-61, ISSN 2590-3322, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590332219300156
Fakhruddin Bapon, Peter Gluckman, Anne Bardsley, Georgina Griffiths, Andrew McElroy (2021). Ƙirƙirar al'ummomi masu juriya tare da tsarin gargaɗin haɗari na matsakaici. Ci gaba a Kimiyyar Bala'i, 2021
Fakhruddin SHM, Akiyuki Kawasaki, Mukand S. Babel (2015). Martanin al'umma ga tsarin gargaɗin farko na ambaliya: Nazarin shari'a a Ƙungiyar Kaijuri, Bangladesh, Jarida ta Ƙasashen Duniya na Rage Hadarin Bala'i, Vol.14:4, shafi 323-331, ISSN 2212-4209
Sam Barrett, William Ndegwa & Giuseppe Maggio (2021) Darajar yanayi na gida da bayanin yanayin yanayi: ƙimar tattalin arziƙi na tanadin yanayin yanayin da aka raba a Kenya, Yanayi da Ci gaba, 13:2, shafi 173-188, https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2020.1745739
Wetterhall, F. da Di Giuseppe, F. (2018). Fa'idar tsinkayar tsinkayar tsinkayar ruwa a kan Turai, Hydrol. Tsarin Duniya. Sci., 22, shafi 3409-3420, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3409-2018,
[1] Ana nuna mu'amalar yanayi da yanayi ta wani yanayi na yanayi da teku wanda ke shafar yanayin duniya, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Motsin yanayi kuma suna da alaƙa da juna kuma suna kusan ci gaba: ƙaramin motsi na yanayi zai iya haɗawa tare don ƙirƙirar manyan sikelin (misali, guguwa mai ƙarfi na iya haifar da ambaliya, fari, hadari da gobarar daji).
Hoton kanun labarai: Martin Katerberg ta hanyar Flicker.
Kara karantawa game da Kyautar Frontiers Planet, bugu na biyar - Aikace-aikacen suna buɗe har zuwa 1 ga Nuwamba 2026 
Kara karantawa game da An bude sabon asusun bincike don magance matsalar sharar gida a yankin Asiya da Pacific Kara karantawa game da Norway za ta dauki nauyin ofishin hadin gwiwa na shekara ta Polar ta duniya karo na biyar, tare da hadin gwiwar Jamhuriyar Koriya da Chile 